Saturation before accumulation: recurrent climate-induced displacement and the sequenced erosion of livelihood capitals in coastal Ghana

Abstract Climate-induced displacement on low-lying African coasts is rarely a single event; households are displaced, return, and are displaced again. Whether each additional episode deepens livelihood loss, or whether most damage occurs early, remains unquantified. This study examines how the frequency of climate-induced displacement relates to multidimensional livelihood erosion in four tidal-flood and erosion hotspots of Keta Municipality, Ghana. A survey of 364 households was combined with focus groups (n = 24) and three key-informant interviews. Eight deprivation indicators were mapped onto financial, physical, human and social livelihood capitals and aggregated into a weighted deprivation score and an Alkire–Foster multidimensional headcount. Fractional logit, logistic and Poisson models estimated adjusted dose–response associations across four exposure levels: never, once, two to three and more than three displacements in five years. Livelihood deprivation rose from an adjusted 0.40 among never-displaced households to 0.52 after one displacement and 0.63 after two to three, then levelled off (0.61) beyond three episodes. The adjusted probability of multidimensional deprivation was 0.81 after two to three displacements, against 0.44 for never-displaced households. Capitals eroded in sequence: most financial and physical deprivation occurred with the first displacement, whereas access to education and healthcare accumulated only with repeated displacement. Formal employment protected income and assets but not access to services, so displaced formal and place-dependent households converged. Results were robust to alternative weights, estimators and cut-offs. Support therefore needs to be front-loaded, through rapid asset and income replacement after the first displacement, and complemented by protected access to schooling and health services for households facing recurrent displacement.