Structural Determinants of Economic Development in Nigeria: Integrating Modernisation Theory with the Constant Returns to Scale Production Framework

This study examines Nigeria's persistent economic development challenges despite notable progress in urbanisation, educational expansion, and institutional reforms between 2002 and 2023. It seeks to elucidate the extent to which government quality, urbanisation, educational attainment, and technological advancement collectively influence the country's economic development trajectory. Anchored in Modernisation Theory and the Constant Returns to Scale (CRTS) production framework, the study employs correlation analysis and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to investigate both the long-run equilibrium relationship and the interactions among these structural determinants. The empirical findings reveal a robust and stable long-run relationship, demonstrating that improvements in institutional quality, urban development, educational attainment, and technological progress significantly enhance economic development in Nigeria. These results provide empirical support for the CRTS hypothesis, indicating that sustained increases in productive inputs can generate proportional improvements in economic performance when supported by effective institutions. The findings further underscore that urbanisation, in isolation, is insufficient to stimulate structural transformation. Without complementary investments in infrastructure, technological diffusion, and institutional capacity, rapid urban expansion may intensify congestion, inefficiency, and developmental disparities. Similarly, the quality and productivity of human capital, rather than mere increases in educational enrolment, emerge as more critical drivers of sustainable economic progress. The study therefore advocates coordinated investments in infrastructure, innovation, research and development (R&D), and equitable access to quality education and healthcare to maximise developmental outcomes. Furthermore, strengthening institutional effectiveness and exploiting economies of scale in governance, consistent with CRTS principles, can enhance administrative efficiency and foster inclusive, resilient, and sustainable growth. By integrating Modernisation Theory with the CRTS production framework, this study enriches the literature on Nigeria's economic transformation and provides evidence-based policy insights for accelerating long-term sustainable development.