In-transit temperature deviations and arrival quality in the South Africa–Middle East orange export cold chain

Background: Temperature fluctuations during refrigerated transport accelerate citrus deterioration, increasing physiological damage, decay and quality loss. Controlled studies may not capture cumulative commercial exposure and disruption. This study examines associations between historical in-transit temperature deviations and arrival quality in a commercial export corridor. Objectives: The study characterised in-transit temperature deviations and their association with arrival quality in the South Africa–Middle East orange export corridor. Method: A quantitative retrospective design linked 2023–2025 proprietary shipment data, container temperatures and receiver-reported quality outcomes for 252 export containers. Logistic regression assessed associations between in-transit deviations and arrival quality, with alternative model specifications used as robustness checks. Results: Peel pitting increased from 24.1% in 2023 to 71.3% in 2025, whereas rind breakdown and decay declined. Peel pitting was consistently associated with year, departure-port group and transit duration. Temporal and port factors largely explained rind breakdown; temperature effects were inconsistent. Decay remained prevalent, although model instability constrained inference. Transit duration was the most reliable positive predictor. Extended analyses confirmed these patterns. Conclusion: Operational conditions, route configurations and transit duration most strongly influence arrival quality, while temperature effects are outcome-specific. Cold-chain risk assessment therefore requires integrated operational and thermal analysis. Contribution: This study provides multi-season evidence from citrus exports, showing that operational conditions, route configurations and transit duration are more consistently associated with arrival quality than aggregate in-transit temperature metrics.