Adaptation to basin scale water scarcity through increasing forest cover and pond interventions using hydrological modelling

Water scarcity is increasing due to climate variability and rising water demand. In this study, the SWAT model was calibrated under business-as-usual conditions and applied to evaluate three adaptation strategies: Increased Forest Cover (IFC), Pond Development and their combined implementation under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios to reduce Blue Water Scarcity (BWS) and Green Water Scarcity (GWS). Results indicate that pond development alone improves local water storage but has limited basin-scale influence. IFC improves soil moisture and infiltration, thereby reducing GWS. The combined IFC + Pond strategy significantly enhances hydrological resilience by increasing groundwater contribution to streamflow by 3.5–7%, reducing surface runoff by 10–16% and improving blue water availability by up to 6% during dry periods. Overall, the integrated nature-based adaptation strategy effectively strengthens water availability and reduces future climate-induced water scarcity at the basin scale.