How Do Loot Box Probabilities Affect Secondary Market Prices and Player Choices in Video Games

This study aims to investigate how the probability of winning in video game gacha systems influences players' choices regarding the acquisition of virtual skins, as well as the relationship between this probability mechanism and secondary market prices. Taking Identity V as the research object, this paper focuses on its Gold‑level skins; the official base drop probability for this kind of skin is 0.7%, each single draw is priced at 9.6 yuan, and for players who have not received any gold skin, the game will give out a guaranteed gold skin on the 200th draw. Under this setting, the study calculated the cumulative probability of obtaining a gold skin with different draw numbers, and it also worked out the corresponding spending; these computed results were then compared with the real‑world prices of various gold skins available on the secondary market. Several basic economic concepts, such as scarcity, supply and demand, as well as opportunity cost, were applied in this paper to illustrate the price gap that exists between these two markets. According to the calculation results, players will have a higher probability of receiving a gold skin when they carry out more draws; meanwhile, the 200‑draw cap prevents players from making an unlimited number of attempts. Data collected from the secondary market also presents huge price differences among gold skins; some permanent gold skins are traded at roughly 120‑200 yuan, whereas rare, widely‑favoured or skins that are no longer released can be sold for several thousand yuan.