The Polish Housing Market and EU Energy Standards in Relation to Prices, Mortgages and the Energy Mix

In Poland, the nearly zero-energy building standard required by the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive became binding at the end of 2020, before an energy crisis and a steep rise in interest rates. A difference-in-differences comparison of primary and secondary market prices for 2019–2025 shows a shift of 5.75 percentage points in their growth differential, but most of it occurred in early 2021, before dwellings built to the standard could be sold; the estimate falls to 2.68 points with a linear trend and to 1.13 on central-bank transaction data and loses significance once the delayed recording of new dwellings is allowed for. The euro area shows 3.03 points. The shift is a change in relative price growth, not an identified effect of the standard. On harmonised statistics, the mean absolute annual change in new housing loans in 2020–2024 was 32.7 per cent in Poland and 14.5 per cent in the euro area. A heat pump with a seasonal coefficient of performance of 2.5 breaks even with a gas boiler at 0.581 kg CO2/kWh, close to Polish end-user intensity in 2023 and 2024; at 3.5, it emitted less throughout 2020–2024. Electrification of heating and decarbonisation of the power mix are complements.