INFLATION DYNAMICS AND FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA: INVESTIGATING THE IMPACT OF FOOD PRICE INFLATION

This study investigated the empirical impact of inflation dynamics and selected macroeconomic variables on food security in Nigeria over the period 1986 to 2025. Utilising annual time-series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, Food and Agriculture Organization, and World Bank, the study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Food security was proxied by the Food Production Index (FSEC), while food price inflation (FPIN), agricultural credit (LNACR), exchange rate (LNEXR), and real GDP per capita (LNRGDPpc) served as explanatory variables. Unit root tests confirmed a mixed order of integration [I(0) and I(1)], while the ARDL Bounds test (F = 8.134) established a significant long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. The error correction model revealed a statistically significant speed of adjustment (ECMt-1 = -0.4783, p < 0.001), indicating that 47.83\% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected annually toward long-run equilibrium. In the long run, agricultural credit exerts a statistically significant positive effect on food security (β = 10.2958, p = 0.0498), whereas food price inflation, exchange rate, and real GDP per capita exhibited statistically insignificant long-run impacts on aggregate food output. Post-estimation diagnostics validated the absence of serial correlation and heteroskedasticity, alongside dynamic structural stability. The study concludes that institutional financial credit is the primary driver of domestic food security in Nigeria. It recommends expanding targeted concessionary agricultural credit frameworks like the Anchor Borrowers' Programme to enhance national food production capacity.