Spatial competition and patron retention: evaluating competitive zones in casino CRM models

Spatial dependence influences casino demand in competitive regional markets. Patrons prefer casinos that offer greater value relative to their travel effort, making proximity an important consideration when choosing among alternatives. However, predictive CRM models for identifying shifts in casino patron behavior have generally overlooked the geographic distribution of competing properties. This study evaluates Competitive Zones, a measure identifying whether a focal casino is the geographically nearest property to a patron using distances calculated through the Spherical Law of Cosines, and tests whether embedding this measure improves casino CRM models. Using survey data from patrons in the New England casino market following the opening of Encore Boston Harbor, patrons residing within a focal casino’s Competitive Zone were less likely to report declines in visitation, gaming expenditure, and wallet share than those residing outside it. Monte Carlo cross-validated logistic models further show that adding Competitive Zones to traditional CRM predictors and distance to the focal casino improved validation AUC by 2.7% to 3.6%, with a 13.0% improvement in the top decile lift index for wallet-share decline. Findings suggest that Competitive Zones offer a simple, accessible tool for strengthening casino CRM modeling and identifying patrons at risk of reduced activity.