Geosocietal asymmetry and democratic resilience in Ukraine: panel survey evidence through Russia’s full-scale invasion

The article tests the geosocietal logic of democratic resilience in Ukraine under a protracted full-scale war. The empirical basis is a longitudinal panel study by the Institute of Sociology, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine: a baseline survey (November 2021, N = 1,800) and five follow-up waves with the same respondents, from June–July 2022 through late 2024. The share of respondents for whom democracy is personally important rose from 59% in November 2021 to 81% in June 2022 and subsequently ranged between 77% and 86%, with no significant differences across waves. Prewar geopolitical orientations, civic identity and news source choice significantly explain variation in the importance of democracy throughout the war; the strongest predictor is prewar support for a union with Russia, whose adherents value democracy about 12% lower. The invasion acted as a geosocietal leveller: support for democracy over three months after Russia's full-scale invasion increased the most among previously Russia-oriented respondents, yet a significant gap between groups persisted as the war continued. In models restricted to the wartime period (Waves 2–6), prewar factors no longer explain subsequent change: stable individual traits account for 88–90% of the variation, meaning that attitudes formed at the war's onset became highly entrenched. The article substantiates the concept of geosocietal infospheres with asymmetric effects: prewar reliance on Russia-based news sources consistently depresses support for democracy, whereas the positive effect of Western sources is mostly insignificant, indicating an autocratic advantage in information warfare. Personal war loss raises, while post-traumatic stress lowers, support for democracy. Support for EU and NATO membership, which rose after the invasion and remained high, is robustly associated with stronger support for democracy. Therefore, the sense of belonging to a democratic geopolitical coalition, which external support for Ukraine also helps sustain, is a key factor in its democratic resilience.