Who Stays, Who Leaves? A Longitudinal Study of Career Trajectories of Australian Tertiary Education Teachers

This study examines the career trajectories of tertiary education teachers in Australia using 24 years of longitudinal data that capture changes in employment and career paths over time. The results reveal substantial early-career attrition, with higher exit risks observed among younger teachers, VET subsector staff, individuals in regional and remote areas, and those in insecure roles. Lower wages, reduced job satisfaction, higher job stress, lower perceived job complexity, and limited perceived skill development are also associated with an increased likelihood of teacher exit. Longitudinal analyses further indicate clear divergence in career experiences, with early-career leavers reporting declining job satisfaction and increasing stress prior to exit, while long-term stayers maintain more stable and positive perceptions of their work over time. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening early-career support, improving employment stability, enhancing job quality, and addressing structural disparities across subsectors to sustain a stable and resilient tertiary education workforce.