What is the Best Nerdle Starting Equation? An Exact Analysis of All 17,723 Openers

A follow-up to "The Probability of Solving Nerdle in Exactly Two Guesses," which found that 52-34=18 gives the best chance of solving Nerdle on the second guess. That opener is not necessarily the best overall. Scoring all 17,723 possible openers, we show that 54-36=18 gives the lowest average number of guesses under perfect play (3.0194, or 2.9468 when commutative answers are accepted), and an exhaustive check proves no other opener does as well. The margins among the top openers are very small.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24121895
Primary Topic
Probability and Statistical Research
Type
article
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article

What is the Best Nerdle Starting Equation? An Exact Analysis of All 17,723 Openers

Sean Harding
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Probability and Statistical Research
article

What is the Best Nerdle Starting Equation? An Exact Analysis of All 17,723 Openers

Sean Harding
article en

Abstract

A follow-up to "The Probability of Solving Nerdle in Exactly Two Guesses," which found that 52-34=18 gives the best chance of solving Nerdle on the second guess. That opener is not necessarily the best overall. Scoring all 17,723 possible openers, we show that 54-36=18 gives the lowest average number of guesses under perfect play (3.0194, or 2.9468 when commutative answers are accepted), and an exhaustive check proves no other opener does as well. The margins among the top openers are very small.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Probability and Statistical Research
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What is the Best Nerdle Starting Equation? An Exact Analysis of All 17,723 Openers — Sean Harding · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS