Ecological niche differentiation and future distribution dynamics of threatened Lagochilus (Lamiaceae) species in Central Asian mountain–desert ecosystems

Climatic gradients play a fundamental role in shaping plant distributions in arid mountain ecosystems, yet the comparative niche dynamics of threatened xerophytic taxa remain insufficiently studied in Central Asia. In this study, ecological niche modelling using the Maxent algorithm was applied to assess climatic determinants, niche differentiation, and potential future distribution shifts of four Lagochilus species in Central Uzbekistan. A total of 85 georeferenced occurrence records were compiled and analyzed together with bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database. Future projections were generated under the SSP245 scenario using the BCC-CSM2-MR climate model for the years 2050 and 2070. All models demonstrated high predictive performance (AUC > 0.94), indicating robust model reliability. Species distributions were primarily influenced by precipitation of the driest month and temperature seasonality, suggesting strong climatic control over realized ecological niches. Niche overlap analyses revealed generally low to moderate similarity among species, indicating substantial ecological differentiation despite partial spatial overlap. Future climate projections suggest contraction and fragmentation of suitable habitats for narrowly distributed taxa, whereas more widespread species are expected to maintain relatively stable suitability patterns. Mountain systems, particularly the Nuratau Range, remained climatically suitable across all scenarios and may function as important refugia for threatened species. Overall, the results indicate that ongoing climate change is likely to reinforce ecological divergence rather than promote niche convergence among Lagochilus species. These findings provide spatially explicit insights into climate-driven niche dynamics and offer valuable guidance for biodiversity conservation in arid mountain ecosystems.