Becoming permanently temporary: a population-level analysis of visa trajectories in Australia, 2006–2023

Temporary migration has expanded in OECD countries, including Australia. Without a commensurate increase in permanent migration, there are growing concerns that more migrants remain on temporary visas for longer, often without clear pathways to permanent residence. Yet, in the absence of population-level evidence, the scale of long-term temporary migration and the diversity of visa pathways remain largely unknown. Using a life-course perspective and the concept of ‘permanent temporariness’, we follow 2.5 million temporary migrants who entered Australia between 2006 and 2016 and track their visa status for 7 years up to 2023. Descriptive statistics and sequence analysis reveal a decline in the proportion of migrants who acquire permanent residence and citizenship and longer durations on temporary visas. The share of migrants who become permanently temporary (those still on a temporary visa 7 years after arrival) has doubled, reaching 24% of the most recent arrival cohort. This shift is particularly marked among international students whose visa pathways have become more diverse and complex. Over a third of international students become permanently temporary whereas skilled migrants continue to follow more rapid and linear routes to permanent residence. These findings highlight visa pathways as an important but understudied source of heterogeneity in the migrant population.