Integrated Assessment and Optimization of the Water–Food Nexus in Avocado Production

Water scarcity challenges avocado production in Michoacán, where irrigation requirements and water-allocation constraints vary among municipalities. This study developed a Water–Food Nexus optimization framework for six avocado-producing municipalities using a monthly linear programming model incorporating variable crop coefficients, water-right-based allocation limits, and hypothetical rainwater harvesting. Three irrigation efficiencies were evaluated: sprinkler (0.70), micro-sprinkler (0.80), and drip irrigation (0.95). A four-stage lexicographic optimization prioritized deficit minimization and efficient water allocation. Increasing irrigation efficiency from 0.70 to 0.95 reduced modeled gross irrigation demand from 308.23 to 227.11 Mm3 year−1 (26%) and unmet demand from 26.31 to 10.91 Mm3 year−1 (59%), increasing regional coverage from 92% to 95%. Under drip irrigation, Uruapan and Tancítaro achieved practically complete coverage, whereas Salvador Escalante reached only 73%. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that these outcomes depend on water-allocation and delivery conditions. Higher efficiency also reduced estimated production losses. However, reductions in gross irrigation demand do not necessarily represent net basin-scale water savings, as consumptive use and return flows were not quantified. The framework supports municipality-specific irrigation-management strategies under defined water-allocation constraints.