Science Diplomacy Between Guarded Openness and Transformative Change

Abstract Science diplomacy is undergoing a structural and functional transformation, shifting from a governance paradigm centred on universalist international scientific cooperation towards one increasingly shaped by geopolitical competition, digital transformation, and the management of technological dependencies and systemic risks. Drawing on major science diplomacy declarations published over the past 25 years, we identify a shift from normative multilateralism towards a model of guarded openness that combines collaboration with safeguards, resilience, and anticipatory governance. We argue that science diplomacy increasingly both shapes and is shaped by the governance architectures and practices through which global knowledge systems are coordinated in the face of systemic risk. This evolution is a response to current challenges, but it does not yet amount to transformative change. Rather than explaining this evolution, transformative change, as articulated by the Intergovernmental Science–Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), provides a forward-looking lens through which to consider how science diplomacy could contribute to fundamental, system-wide shifts in views, structures, and practices that address the underlying causes of nature’s decline. Concurrently, the emerging architecture of science diplomacy reveals growing tensions among openness, equity, trust, security, and strategic autonomy. We propose three priorities - shared and inclusive knowledge systems, institutional reflexivity, and robust science–policy interfaces - and identify concrete roles for governments, research institutions, scientists, and global assessment bodies such as IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Understanding this transformation is essential for ensuring that science diplomacy remains an effective, inclusive, and trusted science–policy interface. Highlights Science diplomacy is shifting from normative multilateralism to guarded openness. Guarded openness keeps scientific collaboration but adds security safeguards. Science diplomacy shapes and is shaped by global knowledge governance architectures. Transformative change offers a normative lens for how science diplomacy should evolve. Scientists and institutions must balance openness, trust, integrity, and security. Keywords Science diplomacy, Guarded openness, Transformative change, Knowledge governance, Science–policy interface, Research security, IPBES