Assessing demand-side policy impacts on US urban passenger transport

Abstract Demand-side policies could significantly mitigate energy use and carbon emissions of urban passenger transport. However, previous integrated assessment modeling studies often failed to fully evaluate their mitigation potential in the absence of explicit representation of urban transport dynamics. Here we adjust the global integrated assessment model GCAM to disaggregate passenger transport in the US region into the urban and inter-city subsectors. We analyze the impacts of transformative demand-side policies on US urban passenger transport service demand, mode share, energy use, and carbon emissions. We consider six demand-side policies (compact urban development , speed limit, shared mobility, remote working, fuel tax, and congestion fee) as well as a technology policy of vehicle electrification. We find that all demand-side policies could collectively reduce urban transport energy use and carbon emissions by approximately 60% from the baseline in 2050 by shifting and reducing transport demand. We also find that demand-side policies could deliver strong synergies with electric vehicle (EV) deployment. Under ambitious EV deployment, although most direct urban passenger transport emissions are mitigated, electricity demand would increase by 718 TWh from 2021 to 2050, as much as 16% of current US total electricity consumption. A full portfolio of demand-side policies could limit the increased electricity use for urban transport to 299 TWh in 2050, providing substantial benefits for energy savings. Our study shows that demand-side policies and vehicle electrification can be complementary in achieving decarbonization and other sustainability goals.