Modeling Electricity–Carbon Coupling and Storage Optimization for China’s Low-Carbon Power Transition

Abstract China’s ambitious “dual carbon” goals necessitate a profound low-carbon transition of its power system, a process fraught with complexities arising from the dynamic interplay of policy, technology, and market mechanisms. To address this challenge, this study develops a novel system dynamics model that integrates five key subsystems: economy, policy, technology, electricity demand, and flexibility resources. A significant innovation is the incorporation of a dynamic green certificate–carbon market linkage mechanism, which captures critical feedback effects. This model simulates China’s power structure evolution from 2020 to 2060, introducing a dynamic carbon quota banking system and coupled electricity–carbon price differential equations. Our analysis quantifies a “triple-threshold” effect of carbon price, revealing its nonlinear impact on coal power costs, unit retirement, and renewable energy investment: (1) an activation threshold ( ∼ 200 RMB / tCO 2 ) where coal power profitability begins to erode; (2) an acceleration threshold ( ∼ 500 RMB / tCO 2 ) triggering rapid coal unit retirement and a structural shift in investment toward renewables; and (3) a saturation threshold ( ∼ 800 RMB / tCO 2 ) where further carbon price increases yield diminishing returns for decarbonization, necessitating complementary flexibility resources such as storage. Furthermore, we propose an adaptive regulation mechanism to mitigate electricity price volatility and construct a strategy for energy storage configuration aligned with system flexibility optimization. Multidimensional policy–technology synergy scenarios demonstrate that a combination of strong intervention and high technological progress (S1) can achieve a 99.8% reduction in carbon emissions by 2060 compared to the baseline, with policy–technology synergy driving approximately 70% of this reduction.