Regional Security and Political Change in the Indo-Pacific: Major Powers, Institutional Responses, and Implications for International Cooperation

Asia is undergoing a prolonged phase of socio-political and geopolitical strategic volatility shaped by great-power rivalry, geo-economic fragmentation, technological weaponization, demographic transitions, and rapid military modernization. This article investigates the structural transformation of the Indo-Pacific security architecture through a comparative analysis of four pivotal Asian powers—China, India, Japan, and South Korea—their interactions with the United States, and the collective institutional responses of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Moving beyond conventional bipolar Cold War analogies, this study constructs a multi-theoretical framework integrating Realism, Complex Interdependence, Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), and comparative federalist/consociational theories of decentralized order. The article demonstrates that contemporary regional security is governed by a structural paradox: deep, systemic economic and supply-chain interdependence coexists with zero-sum strategic distrust, creating acute security dilemmas, asymmetric vulnerabilities, and intersecting nuclear escalation dyads. The study further examines the socio-cultural and domestic political ramifications of transactional diplomacy in Southeast Asia and evaluates ASEAN’s institutional capacity to maintain regional equilibrium. The paper concludes with theoretical implications for International Relations scholarship, policy recommendations for multilateral confidence-building, and directions for future research.