Time-variant structural damage risk analysis by state-of-the-art Gaidai multivariate structural safety method and novel order statistics extrapolation scheme for Panamax cargo vessel deck panel stresses

Abstract Safety of modern cargo ship transportation is essential to the world trade. For the contemporary medium-to-large cargo fleet, it is essential to develop high-fidelity risk analysis and reliability concepts, particularly for analysing onboard-recorded datasets when available. Existing structural reliability and structural damage risk analysis techniques are often unsuitable for high-dimensional dynamic transportation systems with nonlinear intercorrelations among key parts or dimensions. This case study used onboard-measured datasets to characterise hotspot stresses in the container ship’s deck panels and hull during its transatlantic voyages. Structural damage and container loss risks increase with excessive vessel motion or fatigue cracks in deck panels. Vessel dynamics is multimodal, highly nonlinear and nonstationary; hence, full-scale onboard physical measurements take priority over numerical simulations and scaled laboratory tests, including towing-tank tests. Onboard data recorded during transatlantic voyages in occasionally adverse ocean conditions offer unique insights into the operational dynamics of the laden 4400 TEU container ship.