Trends in breast, cervical, and colon cancer incidence and mortality rates in Türkiye: national evaluation of three population-based screening-targeted cancers

Breast, cervical, and colon cancer are central to cancer control policy in Türkiye, yet their long-term incidence and mortality trends have not been described with formal trend-segmentation methods. We conducted a population-based Joinpoint regression analysis of age-standardized incidence (2009-2020; registry coverage rising from 23.4 to 50.6%) and mortality (2009-2023) rates for breast, cervical, and colon cancer in Türkiye. We estimated annual percentage change per segment and average APC (AAPC), overall and by age group, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs; in brackets). Breast cancer incidence rose [AAPC: 1.51% (0.14, 2.86)]; mortality rose until 2015 and then leveled off [AAPC: 1.13% (-0.16, 2.44)]. Cervical cancer incidence was stable overall [AAPC: 0.79% (-0.62, 2.18)] but rose at ages 30-49 years [AAPC: 1.99% (0.64, 3.40)], while mortality declined [AAPC: -1.44% (-2.37, -0.51)]. Colon cancer incidence rose in women [AAPC: 1.72% (0.20, 3.02)] and men [AAPC: 2.44% (0.52, 4.05)] mainly during 2009-2012. Colon cancer mortality rose until 2015 and then declined; the overall AAPC was significant in men [0.72% (0.25, 1.28)] but not in women [-0.19% (-0.68, 0.36)]. Cervical cancer mortality declined steadily despite rising incidence among younger women, while breast and colon cancer incidence increased and colon cancer carried a disproportionate mortality burden in men. Because registry coverage roughly doubled, the incidence increases may partly reflect wider coverage and case ascertainment rather than a true national increase. These ecological trends cannot be attributed to a single cause and should be read alongside screening-program coverage and performance.