AI-Driven Digital Dependencies and Sustainable Systemic Resilience in GCC Insurance Markets: Toward a Preventive and Integrated Risk Management Framework

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming insurance operations but may also deepen reliance on shared digital infrastructure, creating common operational vulnerabilities. This study examines whether operational AI adoption becomes more systemically consequential when critical third-party digital providers are shared across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) insurance markets and whether enterprise risk management (ERM) and reinsurance provide preventive resilience. The sample covers 84 listed insurers in six GCC countries during 2015–2025. Systemic risk is measured using rolling two-year leave-one-out Delta CoVaR, with Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) and alternative tail-risk specifications as robustness checks. AI exposure is disclosure based, and shared third-party digital dependence (STPD) is measured using a leave-one-out provider-commonality index. In 704 complete firm-years, STPD is positive but statistically insignificant, while AIEXP × STPD is negative and statistically insignificant (beta = -0.000021, p = 0.255; wild-cluster p = 0.310); ERM and reinsurance moderation terms are also insignificant. The findings indicate that shared digital dependence does not automatically translate into observable market-based systemic stress. The study reframes sustainable insurance risk management around anticipatory governance, operational continuity, financial resilience and system-level oversight, offering a preventive framework for governing AI-enabled digital concentration in rapidly transforming insurance markets.