Comparative techno-economic analysis of six solar thermal technologies for industrial process heat in Phoenix, Arizona

Introduction Industrial process heat in the 150 °C–500 °C range is a difficult decarbonization target, and the candidate solar routes rely on physically dissimilar conversion chains that are rarely screened on a common basis. The aim of this screening-level study is to determine which of six solar-heat pathways justify facility-specific investigation for industrial process heat in Phoenix, Arizona, and at which process temperatures. Methods The six pathways are parabolic trough collectors (PTC), linear Fresnel reflectors (LFR), solar power towers (SPT), parabolic dishes, photovoltaic (PV)-coupled heat pumps, and PV-powered resistance heating. Direct-thermal and PV-electric pathways are represented with separate performance models. They are compared on a common annual-yield and levelized cost of heat (LCOH) basis, using hourly National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) weather data, technology-specific cost inputs, and Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. Results Under the stated assumptions, PTC and LFR form the lowest-LCOH group in the medium-temperature range, with central estimates near $136 and $139/MWh th and substantially overlapping uncertainty intervals. The PV-coupled heat-pump route is the lower-cost electrical route only at the coefficient of performance (COP) = 2.2 design point; at the Phoenix annual global horizontal irradiance (GHI)-weighted COP of 1.68, its 150 °C result rises to approximately $385/MWh th . SPT is the high-temperature direct-thermal option at the upper end of the study grid, but its available cost record is anchored to a 100 MW th reference scale and its modeled cost is higher than the PTC/LFR group's. Chronological dispatch results show that continuous demand can increase delivered-heat cost relative to an annual-output metric that credits useful heat equally regardless of delivery hour. Discussion The results support an initial technology screen; site-specific demand, integration, storage, and current commercial inputs remain necessary for a project decision.