Surviving regions of wheat stripe rust in China based on micro-time period windows temperature raster reconstruction

Abstract Environmental factors are the key determinants in plant disease epidemics. With the accelerating pace of global climate change, the incidence of plant diseases and pests has increased substantially. Wheat stripe rust is one of the most important diseases affecting wheat production, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici ( Pst ). Temperature is a critical determinant of Pst survival, and climate change has consequently reshaped its distribution and epidemic regions, thereby posing an escalating threat to wheat production. In this study, temperature rasters reconstructed using micro-time period windows were identify potential epidemic regions of wheat stripe rust in China. We mapped the spatial distribution of regions that met the temperature requirements for Pst oversummering, overwintering, and winter reproduction from 1970 to 2020, and quantified the area of these regions. Furthermore, by integrating wheat cultivation distribution data from 2000 to 2019 with corresponding temperature datasets, we delineated the precise regions where Pst can oversummer, overwinter, and reproduce during winter. Subsequently, we analyzed the spatial dynamics and temporal trends of these regions. Over the past five decades, the regions meeting the temperature requirements for Pst oversummering have decreased (S = −351.0 < 0), whereas regions suitable for Pst overwintering and winter reproduction have increased (S = 283.0 and 281.0 > 0). After accounting for host distribution, the suitable region for Pst oversummering continued to decline (S = −59.0 < 0), whereas no significant temporal trends were detected for overwintering and winter reproduction. Validation confirmed that the actual disease occurrence records and historical epidemic regions were consistent with our delineated areas. Meanwhile, analysis of actual disease occurrence data from Gansu Province and Ili Prefecture showed significant positive correlations between the area of the temperature-suitable winter reproduction host region (OWHR) and disease area (Gansu: r = 0.890, R 2 = 0.792, p = 0.0005; Ili: r = 0.935, R 2 = 0.874, p = 0.00007), indicating that our results support monitoring and early warning for wheat stripe rust.