O‘ZBEKISTONDA KICHIK BIZNES RIVOJLANISHINING HUDUDIY TAFOVUTLARI VA TARKIBIY OMILLARINI STATISTIK-EKONOMETRIK BAHOLASH

The article assesses the structural and regional features of small business development in Uzbekistan using official statistics for 2010–2025. The structural shift in business demography is tested with Welch’s t-test, while the dynamics of the small business share in gross regional product across 14 regions are analysed using linear trends, Ward clustering, and σ- and β-convergence. The effect of small business participation in industries and foreign trade on its share in GDP is estimated with a multiple regression model including a dummy variable and diagnostic tests. The results show that after 2019 the net survival rate increased from 4.3% to 14.4%, the small business share in GRP declined significantly in 11 of 14 regions, and the inter-regional coefficient of variation rose from 12.8% to 22.1%. The regression model (R²=0.885) reveals a positive effect of the industrial share and a negative effect of the export share, while the Chow test confirms a structural break in 2019. Based on the findings, proposals are developed to differentiate small business support policy according to regional typology