Governance capacity determines food security resilience across Arab sub-regions (2016–2025)

This study examines the evolution of food security across the Arab region from 2016 to 2025, addressing three research questions: trends in key food security indicators, differential impacts of major shocks across sub-regions, and conditions under which shocks become persistent versus transitory. Using triangulated data from AOAD, FAO, World Bank, GHI, and GFSI with panel regression (2016–2022, N = 98), we find that while the pan-Arab food gap increased from $34.5 billion to $43.3 billion, the aggregate trend masks a four-tier resilience hierarchy. Persian Gulf countries showed strong negative correlation between food prices and hunger (− 0.741), while conflict-affected regions showed very strong positive correlations (0.71–0.92). Panel regression shows a statistically significant positive association between SDG progress and food security outcomes (Fixed Effects β = 0.255, p = 0.001). The analysis indicates that governance capacity, not strategy availability, is the strongest predictor of resilience. A central contrast emerges between sub-regions. The Persian Gulf maintains undernourishment below 5% despite 94.6% import dependence, whereas the Maghreb, Mashreq, and Central regions face rates of 6–8%, 12–15%, and over 20% respectively. This shows that the same import dependence amplifies vulnerability when fiscal buffers are absent. We propose a differentiated implementation model where AOAD coordinates region-specific programs tailored to sub-regional capacities. Without targeted interventions addressing these gaps, regional food security will remain fragile, poorly governed, and deeply unequal.