Spatial Patterns and Associated Factors of County-Level Correspondence Between Rural Labor Out-Migration and Cultivated-Land Adjustment: Evidence from Hunan Province, China

This study examines county-level correspondence between rural labor out-migration and cultivated-land adjustment across 122 units in Hunan Province, China. The rural labor–land correspondence (RLLC) indicator uses positive net cultivated-land reduction between benchmark years, not registered farmland transfer. With 2005 as the baseline, RLLC was calculated for 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2023 and analyzed using spatial autocorrelation, ordinary least squares, geographically weighted regression and geographically and temporally weighted regression. RLLC exhibited spatial unevenness and positive autocorrelation (Moran’s I = 0.3777–0.5250). Among predictors without direct overlap with RLLC components, household register urbanization had positive mean coefficients in most counties but limited local statistical support. Associations for agricultural business entities, grain-production specialization and per capita GDP were positive and geographically localized where they exceeded the reporting threshold, while per capita fiscal expenditure had negative mean coefficients throughout. In the OLS sensitivity analysis excluding three component-overlapping predictors, the five remaining predictors retained their coefficient directions and statistical significance. RLLC does not measure farmland transfer or optimal land allocation, and the observed associations do not establish causal effects. Farmland transfer is considered a possible institutional mechanism.