Unusually Wet Conditions, Microcredit Placement, and Gender: High-Frequency Municipal Evidence on Climate Resilience and Inclusive Finance in Colombia

Climate shocks can undermine sustainable development if lenders restrict credit precisely when households and microenterprises need liquidity. This study aims to determine whether hydroclimatic anomalies alter the placement of productive microcredit in Colombia and whether the response differs by borrower sex. We combine weekly administrative records from the Financial Superintendence of Colombia (3.98 million loans, September 2023–May 2026) with the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for 1108 municipalities and estimate Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood models with department-by-month fixed effects. An unusually wet month (SPEI ≥ 1.5) is associated with a 0.9% decline in the number of loans placed in that month, concentrated in the largest urban credit markets and among new borrowers; drought has no detectable effect, and randomization inference indicates that the evidence for the wet-month decline is modest. Credit to women does not respond differently from credit to men, although women receive loans about 18% smaller and make less use of public guarantees. The study contributes high-frequency evidence on credit flows, rather than balances, under recurrent climate anomalies. Practical implications include continuity plans for loan origination and gender-sensitive guarantee schemes. Limitations include a short panel and the inability to separate credit supply from demand.