Gregariousness can promote invasion success of pest insects while higher environmental heterogeneity decreases it

Climate change and environmental homogenization are expected to facilitate the expansion of many forest pest insect species and increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to insect outbreaks. At present, we lack empirical data on how the antipredator defence traits of pest insects interact with the local environmental conditions and shape outbreak risk. Here we study this and ask 1) how the antipredator defence strategy of pest insects shapes survival under naturally varying predator community, and 2) how is predation risk shaped by the diversity and structure of forests? We tested these questions by conducting a field predation experiment with artificial prey system (prey items made from edible dough) where we manipulated the gregariousness, unpalatability and defensive colouration of prey and tested their effects on prey survival. Additionally, we measured environmental variables and invertebrate predator community structure along the prey transects to analyse how they shape overall predation risk. Our results show that the predation risk was always lowest for gregarious prey irrespective of other defence strategies. Furthermore, our results indicate that predation pressure was lower in more homogenously structured forest areas or areas with a weak quality deadwood continuum in comparison to locations with more natural state forests and good quality deadwood continuum. Altogether, our results suggest that gregariousness can facilitate pest insects to form outbreaks by increasing their survival against generalist predators. However, by maintaining higher heterogeneity in forests, it is possible to ensure higher predation pressure to regulate their population growth.