From Evacuation to Relocation: Hurricane Mobility Sequences and Climate Migration Destination Choice

Abstract Post-disaster evacuation and residential relocation are typically studied as separate phenomena, yet the destinations people move to may be shaped by the same underlying social geography. This study examines post-hurricane mobility across these two distinct phases following Hurricanes Helene and Milton (2024). Combining GPS-based point-of-interest visit data to measure evacuation flows with address history data to identify residential relocation, we construct inter-county origin-destination matrices for both phases and estimate a quasi-Poisson gravity model pooling relocation flows across a pre-hurricane baseline year (2019), the hurricane year (2024), and the subsequent year (2025). Descriptive analysis reveals that evacuation and relocation destinations are largely distinct. Only 11.7% of active origin-destination pairs qualify as both evacuation and relocation hotspots, and the clearest feature distinguishing these dual-use hotspots is family tie strength. Gravity model estimates show that racial similarity loses significance once distance, population size, and housing market conditions are controlled, while income and industry similarity retain modest independent effects. Critically, the association between family ties and relocation flows is significantly stronger in the hurricane year relative to the baseline year, suggesting that social networks become a more decisive guide to destination choice when displacement is sudden and information is incomplete. These findings suggest that family ties measured from pre-disaster mobility data can help planners anticipate where post-disaster migrants will settle.