Is there a female advantage in first- and second-instance decisions on asylum applications in the European Union?

This article examines the context-dependent nature of gender differences in asylum recognition across the EU27 between 2008 and 2024, drawing on Eurostat data on more than eight million decisions concerning adult applicants. We compare women’s and men’s probabilities of receiving a positive decision and, conditional on success, being granted refugee status rather than subsidiary or humanitarian protection. Women generally have higher predicted probabilities of receiving a positive decision at both first and final instance, although the size and direction of the gender gap vary across destination countries. This advantage does not consistently extend to refugee status. The female advantage in overall recognition is greater when women account for a smaller share of decisions concerning applicants from the same country of origin in the same destination country and year. Evidence for 2015 also suggests a greater female advantage in countries with more gender-sensitive asylum frameworks. Among successful applicants, the gender gap in refugee status shifts towards women as gender inequality in their countries of origin rises, whereas the female advantage is narrower among applicants from less democratic countries.