Development opportunities affect poverty alleviation sustainability through livelihood capital among relocated households in China

Consolidating poverty-alleviation achievements and safeguarding the bottom line against large-scale relapse into poverty is a key pathway to rural revitalization and common prosperity. Based on survey data from 1,029 rural households collected in 2023 across 56 resettlement communities in 13 counties of three cities—Ankang, Hanzhong, and Shangluo—in southern Shaanxi, this study constructs a three-dimensional evaluation index system for poverty alleviation sustainability that comprises economic conditions, development capacity, and risk of relapsing into poverty. Using the Alkire–Foster (A–F) double-cutoff method and a structural equation model (SEM), it empirically examines the association mechanism between development opportunities and the poverty alleviation sustainability of resettled households under the poverty alleviation resettlement (PAR) program. The results indicate the following. (1) The three dimensions contribute to poverty alleviation sustainability in a graded and differentiated manner, with economic conditions making the largest contribution, followed in turn by the risk of relapsing into poverty and then development capacity. (2) Development opportunities are positively associated with livelihood capital, which mediates the relationship between development opportunities and poverty alleviation sustainability; the mediating effects of financial, social, and natural capital are pronounced, whereas physical capital exerts no significant effect. (3) A direct statistical association exists between development opportunities and poverty alleviation sustainability, and an indirect statistical association also operates through livelihood capital; nevertheless, the long-term nature of human capital improvement calls for sustained policy attention. (4) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that policy interventions and household characteristics significantly moderate the pathways of influence: employment assistance strengthens the conversion of development opportunities into human and social capital, whereas industrial support promotes the accumulation of physical and natural capital; urban-centralized resettled households and those in non-agricultural employment rely more on the financial capital and social capital pathways, respectively, while rural-resettled households and agriculture-dominated households primarily depend on the natural capital channel. Theoretically, this study reveals a progressive mechanism of “development opportunities—livelihood capital—poverty alleviation sustainability”; practically, it offers an analytical instrument for the precise targeting and systematic monitoring of post-resettlement support programs.