Land-Use Governance Implications for Peri-Urban Traditional-Village Edge Spaces in the Context of Urban–Rural Transformation: A Multi-Scale Morphological and Machine Learning–SHAP Approach

Urban–rural transformation has increased the need to coordinate land use, settlement morphology, and heritage conservation at the edges of peri-urban traditional villages. This study examines 60 peri-urban traditional villages in Chaoshan, China, including 15 grid, 15 comb-shaped, 15 radial, and 15 mixed villages, using boundary-construction spans of 12, 30, and 100 m and four morphological indicators: aspect ratio (λ), weighted shape index (Sq), dispersion (σ), and saturation (θ). Statistical tests, exploratory clustering, machine-learning classification, nested cross-validation, and held-out SHAP interpretation were applied to examine morphological differentiation and its implications for land-use governance. All four indicators differed significantly among the morphology types (p < 0.001), with aspect ratio showing the largest effect (η2 = 0.588). Grid villages exhibited relatively regular edge configurations, comb-shaped villages showed strong elongation (λ = 2.447 ± 0.536), radial villages presented higher dispersion, and mixed villages showed the greatest boundary complexity and heterogeneity (Sq = 2.794 ± 0.902). These morphological differences highlight distinct spatial relationships involving settlement boundaries, axial connections, and core–edge organization. With Sq normalization estimated within training partitions, six classifiers achieved nested Macro-F1 values of 0.595–0.697, while the inner-selected system reached 0.687; SHAP identified aspect ratio as the strongest classification contributor. Grouped P25–P75 comparisons based on Sq, σ, and θ yielded 16, 13, 24, and 7 villages with zero to three out-of-band indicators, respectively, reflecting sample-relative morphological departures rather than verified ecological or heritage risks. From a landscape-ecology perspective, these findings support contextual examination of potential edge effects, corridor continuity, and surrounding land-use relationships. Together with four documented village cases, the study provides a comparative geometric basis for differentiated land-use governance and heritage conservation review, while the effectiveness of specific interventions requires independent field and planning evidence.