Mapping wildfire risk for museums and built monuments in the Netherlands

Purpose In this paper we discuss the susceptibility of heritage sites to wildfire in the context of expected climate change. Design/methodology/approach Using Geographic Information System (GIS), we analyze fire susceptibility of the landscape and the locations of museums and buildings listed as national monuments. In addition, we also conducted five local case studies to explore actual risk at a local scale. Findings This study shows that the number of heritage sites in areas highly susceptible to wildfire could more than double by 2050. Research limitations/implications The national scale of the maps available does not allow for detailed, local analysis, exploring the specific spatial conditions, heritage values and vulnerabilities at stake. The employed susceptibility maps also have geographical limitations, as they do not include urbanized areas and the Dutch islands. Besides these geographical caveats, the 2050 projection is limited to one climate scenario, and the underlying insecurities and limitations to the susceptibility index and to climate projections should be considered. Practical implications This paper offers an important starting point for risk assessment, adaptation and mitigation for heritage susceptible to wildfire. Social implications The study raises awareness of an insufficiently recognized but growing climate risk that will affect society in multiple ways. Originality/value Even though awareness of wildfire is increasing globally, this paper is the first to map the susceptibility of heritage sites in the Netherlands.