Quantifying Carbon Abatement from Campus Solar Photovoltaics: An Empirical Case Study

Campus photovoltaic (PV) systems are often credited with a single avoided-emissions figure, although the result depends on the grid factor selected and on what the metering records actually represent. This study examines the available monthly records associated with the five-array PV fleet at Amity University Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from January 2022 to August 2026. The supplied workbook totals 4.62 GWh across 56 monthly entries; however, the workbook labels and billing dates do not independently verify that all entries represent calendar-month PV production measured at the same meter. The March–April 2026 shortfall is unexplained and may be affected by billing-period differences. Five emission-factor scenarios are evaluated: year-matched Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) averages, an illustrative transmission-and-distribution-loss adjustment, and International Financial Institution (IFI) operating-, combined- and derived build-margin factors for the UAE. Under the full-displacement assumption, the DEWA-average scenario gives approximately 1826 t of estimated gross avoided emissions; alternative IFI scenarios produce materially different results. The Monte Carlo interval reflects only the analyst-selected meter and factor-error distributions and is not a measure of total uncertainty. Because meter-period definitions, self-consumption, exports, curtailment and the relevant contractual arrangements are not established, the results are conditional screening estimates, not measurements of realized avoided emissions or verified Scope 2 reductions. This study provides a scenario-based accounting framework and identifies the evidence needed for a more defensible assessment.