From Dating to Marriage: Changes in Short‐Term Fertility Intentions Across Partnership Transitions

ABSTRACT Objective This study examines how short‐term fertility intentions evolve before and after transitions between relationship stages. Background Prior research has primarily compared fertility intentions across partnership statuses, while giving less attention to within‐person dynamics surrounding partnership transitions and the question of whether shifts reflect anticipatory selection or post‐transition changes. Method Using longitudinal data from the German Family Panel (waves 2008–2022), we apply an event‐centered fixed effects design to estimate changes in fertility intentions up to 2 years before and after transitions to dating, cohabitation, and marriage. Stratified analyses assess variation by gender, age, and subsequent relationship stability. Results Entry into dating from singlehood is followed by a modest within‐person increase in fertility intentions. Entry into cohabitation is associated with rising intentions before the transition and sustained increases thereafter. Marriage transitions are characterized by anticipatory increases. Intentions increase after dating only in relationships that persist, underscoring the role of stability. Men and older individuals enter marriage with high fertility intentions, while women report higher intentions before cohabitation. Conclusions Different partnership stages act as distinct mechanisms for the evolution of fertility intentions over the life course. Dating is an early stage at which intentions begin to respond to new relational circumstances, while intentions increase ahead of cohabitation and are already high before marriage.