Empirical Juridical-Digital Twin for Dynamic Incentive Optimization of Plastic Waste Management in Krui Coastal Tourism

Background: Krui's coastal tourism sector generates an estimated 3,200 t of single-use plastic annually, yet real-time monitoring and enforceable legal mechanisms remain absent, undermining circular-economy targets. Objectives: To construct a juridical-digital twin that fuses stochastic waste-generation modelling, vessel-operational logistics, and Indonesian Civil Code provisions (Arts 1320, 1338, 1243) for dynamic incentive optimization and compliance verification. Methods: Daily waste per vessel is modelled with a log-normal distribution calibrated on 120 vessel-days; fuel consumption follows the empirically derived function F_{i,t}=alpha·Speed_{i,t}^{beta}·Load_{i,t}^{gamma}·H_{s,t}^{δ}. A mixed-integer linear program minimizes total social cost (collection, fuel, processing, legal penalties) subject to capacity, wave-height (H_s<2.5 m), speed (<10 kn), budget, and legal-compliance constraints. Smart-contract logic (Solidity pseudocode) encodes breach thresholds (+/-5 % waste-mass deviation, GPS drift >200 m for >30 min) and liquidated damages per Art. 1243 (IDR 1,000,000 per minute). Results: Calibration yields significant coefficients (alpha=0.42, beta=0.87, gamma=0.31, δ=0.12; p<0.01) and an AIC-selected model (AIC=312.4, BIC=327.1). Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis shows incentive revenue fluctuates within +/-12 % under cost-parameter uncertainty, while compliance rates improve from 68 % to 92 % when smart-contract enforcement is activated. Published in: Journal of Coastal Frontiers & Applied Development (JCFAD), Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026), pp. 1–12. Official publisher: PT CHAIN ASIA CONECT Research & Development Division.