Mapping circular economy research in ASEAN from 2021 to 2026 using bibliometric analysis to derive an interpretive multilevel framework

Abstract Southeast Asia is a major node in global flows of materials, manufactured goods and plastic waste, and its governments introduced circular economy (CE) policies in the early 2020s. We examine the accompanying research as evidence. A Scopus search on 20 October 2026 returned 641 records on CE in the eleven member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; after database limits and screening, 316 articles from 2021 to 2026 were analysed. We combined performance analysis, author-keyword co-occurrence mapping with a stability check, and record-level coding of method, data source and temporal design. Annual output grew from 19 articles in 2021 to 85 in 2025, a compound annual growth rate of 45.4%. Authors affiliated with institutions in Indonesia, Viet Nam, Thailand or Malaysia contributed to 267 articles (84.5%), whereas Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Timor-Leste remain almost absent. Co-occurrence mapping produced six clusters, from which stability testing identified seven stable themes ranging from small and medium-sized enterprise performance and Industry 4.0 to waste and material flows and organic waste valorisation. Structural equation models account for 34.5% of articles, 88.2% of studies with a temporal design are cross-sectional, and only 15 observe the same units over time. The literature documents associations between CE practices and reported performance more fully than changes in material and waste flows. We derive an interpretive multilevel framework with four untested propositions linking policy, organisations and material outcomes, and identify the measurement gap that limits its use for evaluating CE policy in emerging economies.