Back to the future: A system approach for the uptake of Inland Water Transport of freight in Northwestern Europe

Abstract Inland water transport (IWT) was once a dominant freight mode in Northwestern Europe but declined with the rise of rail and road transport. Today, IWT is reconsidered within decarbonization strategies to reduce emissions, congestion, and land-use pressures. Technological advances have improved operational efficiency, yet behavioural, organizational and contextual barriers persist. This study examines how interactions among business models, technologies, behaviours, and contextual conditions shape the transition towards IWT using a qualitative system dynamics approach. Nineteen semi-structured interviews with shippers, logistics operators, public authorities, and researchers from Sweden, Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands informed the development of a causal loop diagram describing the freight transport system. Feedback analysis identified five reinforcing and two balancing loops governing IWT uptake and revealed three leverage points: organizational capabilities, maturity of IWT usage, and acceptability. These leverage points explain how transport demand, service reliability, infrastructure development, and stakeholder involvement and coordination reinforce or constrain the expansion of IWT. Their influence varies across bulk, container, and RoRo transport, highlighting that effective interventions must reflect the operational characteristics of different commodity flows rather than relying on generic policy measures. By integrating organizational, technological, behavioural, and contextual processes within a single systems framework, this study advances understanding of freight transport transitions and provides a basis for designing interventions that enable the shift toward IWT as a modern adaptation of a historically proven concept.