From the Safe Intervention Region to Crisis Management: The Point of No Return and the Mitigation of Destructive Consequences in Active Prevention Theory

This working paper develops a conceptual account of the transition from active prevention to crisis management within Active Prevention Theory (APT). It examines the Safe Intervention Region, the Golden Window of Prevention, and the Point of No Return as event-specific concepts. It explains how the operational mission changes after a specified adverse event has occurred, shifting from preventing that event to protecting people, containing damage, mitigating destructive consequences, preventing secondary events, and supporting recovery. The paper also discusses applications in traffic safety, public health, armed conflict, cybersecurity, and environmental risk. It distinguishes crisis preparedness from post-event crisis management and identifies propositions that require further empirical examination. Active Prevention Theory is presented here as a conceptual framework. Its propositions are not claimed to be empirically validated or universally established.