The retreat of foreign capital from the United States real estate market: legal certainty as a window of opportunity for international investors

This article examines the recent retreat of foreign capital from the United States real estate market and argues that legal certainty, understood as the ability to anticipate, structure and document the legal effects of an acquisition, has become the main competitive advantage for international investors seeking to enter that market. The research follows a qualitative, exploratory and descriptive approach, combining a literature review in institutional economics, international real estate finance and urban planning with a documentary analysis of federal and state statutes, court decisions and statistical series published by the National Association of Realtors and MSCI. The data show that residential purchases by foreign buyers fell from US$ 153 billion in the twelve months ending March 2017 to US$ 42 billion in 2024, with a partial recovery to US$ 56 billion in 2025, while the foreign share of commercial real estate investment dropped to 6% in the first quarter of 2024. The analysis shows that this retreat coincides with regulatory tightening on four fronts, namely federal taxation of dispositions and estates, national security review of foreign investment, the spread of state restrictions on foreign ownership of land, and beneficial ownership transparency requirements. The study concludes that the more complex environment raises transaction costs and drives away unprepared capital, but opens room for investors backed by rigorous due diligence, appropriate corporate structures and regulatory compliance, particularly in mixed-use projects aimed at revitalizing underutilized urban areas.