Integrating ecohydrological modelling and participatory processes to co-design multifunctional forest management

Mediterranean forests are becoming denser, drier, and more combustible because of natural and human-driven factors. Forest managers report that managing them is increasingly costly relative to its economic returns and requires informed decision-making supported by appropriate tools and dialogue. This study couples the Decision Support System (DSS) CAFE (Carbon, Aqua, Fire and Eco-resilience) with structured participatory processes across four Living Labs in Spain, Morocco, and Italy, representing distinct Mediterranean socioecological systems: semiarid Aleppo pine forests, traditional argan woodlands with goat grazing, and cork-oak silvopastoral systems. The aim was to evaluate whether management co-designed in this way is resilient to climate disturbance while improving ecosystem services (ES). In three rounds of co-design workshops, stakeholders identified priority ES, agreed on the management actions to enhance them, and evaluated alternatives generated by the DSS. Their priorities were remarkably consistent across sites, focusing on wildfire risk, water availability, and biomass extraction. Preferred interventions were ecologically sound and consistent with field evidence. To this end, CAFE was expanded to quantify locally relevant ES that had not previously been modelled, including argan fruit production, cork extraction, fodder availability, and bark regeneration. Model outputs agreed well with published data at all sites. However, in none of the four sites did stakeholders select the most resilient options available, and their selections were statistically indistinguishable from random choice. These findings highlight that resilience to climate disturbance remains difficult to perceive without appropriate metrics. Making resilience an explicit objective of participatory planning is a necessary contribution of decision-support tools for Mediterranean forests facing increasing uncertainty.