The Role of Informal Social Control in Offending Among Indigenous and White Youth

Indigenous Peoples remain disproportionately represented in juvenile and adult legal systems, yet risk assessment tools and desistance theories often overlook cultural context. This study uses data from the Incarcerated Serious and Violent Young Offender Study of 869 individuals (311 Indigenous, 558 White) first incarcerated as youth (ages 12–17). It examines whether informal social control measured in early adulthood (ages 18–23), using domains derived from the Community Risk-Needs Assessment (CRNA), predicts subsequent adult convictions. Poisson models indicated that higher scores on the informal social control scale were associated with lower subsequent adult conviction rates. This association did not significantly vary by ethnicity. Domain-specific associations emerged across family relationships, living arrangements, intimate partners, academic/vocational skills, and employment. Exploratory analyses identified interactions by Indigenous identity for living arrangements, employment, and academic/vocational skills. Overall, CRNA-derived measures of informal social control (a) did not significantly underperform among Indigenous participants and (b) helped identify that issues with employment and academic/vocational skills may be of particular concern for Indigenous Peoples. However, comparable predictive performance neither supports maintaining existing assessment practices unchanged nor establishes cultural comprehensiveness. Future research should examine whether culturally grounded sources of support are adequately represented within conventional assessment frameworks and whether they provide additional or differential information for understanding desistance among Indigenous Peoples.