The Influence of Social SDGs on Economic SDGs with Environmental SDGs as a Moderating Variable in Indonesia

This study examines the influence of Social Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on Economic SDGs in Indonesia, including the direct contribution of Environmental SDGs and their moderating role. This study used a quantitative explanatory design and annual secondary data for 1990-2024, with 35 observations for seven indicators: Poverty Gap, Primary Completion Rate, Gini Coefficient, Infant Mortality Rate, GDP per capita, Trade Openness, and Access to Electricity, obtained primarily from the World Bank. The data were analyzed using SmartPLS through descriptive statistics and PLS-SEM, including assessment of the structural model, predictive relevance, direct effects, and moderation effects. The results show that the model explains 98.5% of the variance in GDP per capita, 94.5% in Infant Mortality Rate, and 62.9% in Trade Openness, with Q-Square values of 0.680, 0.760, and 0.215, respectively. Of the 21 hypotheses tested, five are supported: Poverty Gap significantly increases Infant Mortality Rate (O = 1.036; p = 0.004) and decreases GDP per capita (O = -0.449; p = 0.011), Gini Coefficient positively affects GDP per capita (O = 0.153; p = 0.035), Access to Electricity positively affects GDP per capita (O = 0.581; p = 0.004), and the interaction between Access to Electricity and Poverty Gap significantly affects GDP per capita negatively (O = -0.747; p < 0.001). The remaining 16 direct and moderation relationships are statistically insignificant. These findings show that Social and Environmental SDGs do not influence economic outcomes uniformly, while Access to Electricity significantly moderates the relationship between Poverty Gap and GDP per capita, highlighting the need for SDG policies that consider indicator-specific interactions rather than treating the three dimensions as independent development components. Contribution to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): SDG 1: No PovertySDG 3: Good Health and Well-beingSDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy