Capital Deepening, Profitability Dynamics, and Structural Transformation in Uganda (1990–2025): A Big Data Econometric Analysis of the Organic Composition of Capital and the Rate of Profit

This article explores the connections between the organic composition of capital, productivity, investment and profitability in Uganda in the context of?Marxian political economy. The paper analyzes, at?the aggregate level and using econometric techniques, if an increasing capital intensity affects profitability and if productivity growth, investment and structural change have an influence on this relation. The results demonstrate that an increasing organic composition of capital is negatively and strongly correlated with?profitability, thus lending empirical support to Marx's law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall. Yet increases in efficiency, structural changes and continued investment serve to?mitigate this impact by increasing efficiency, capacity and the ability to add value. The results show that Uganda represents a?hybrid accumulation regime with capital deepening without full industrialization, service-led growth, and enduring informal labour supremacy. The study contributes to Marxian political economy by incorporating structural transformation in the analysis of profitability and outlines policy implications for facilitating industrialization, productivity growth and?sustainable long-run economic development in Uganda. Received: 27 July 2026 / Accepted: 28 October 2026 / Published: November 2026