A Comparative Analysis of Nigeria’s Greenhouse Gas Emission Profile Within the African Continent

Abstract This study presents a comparative assessment of Nigeria's greenhouse gas emissions within the African continent from 1970 to 2024, using data from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). Nigeria's emissions were evaluated using multiple indicators, including total emissions, per-capita emissions, emission intensity per GDP, emission density, and compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Nigeria ranked third among Africa's top ten emitters in 2024, with total emissions of 350.56 MtCO2e. However, its long-term CAGR of 1.34% was comparatively low, reflecting its already substantial emissions base in 1970. Nigeria's contribution to Africa's total GHG emissions showed a weak and statistically insignificant declining trend. A moderate positive correlation was observed between Nigeria's per-capita emissions and the African average (r = 0.465). The conventional Mann-Kendall test indicated a strong negative trend in Nigeria's per-capita emissions, but this was not statistically significant after accounting for serial autocorrelation. GHG emissions per GDP declined significantly for both Nigeria and the African average from 2009 to 2024, with Nigeria showing a slightly steeper decline. Despite improvements in per-capita emissions and emission intensity, Nigeria's relatively high emission density and continued fossil fuel dependence remain persistent challenges. The findings highlight the importance of multidimensional indicators in evaluating climate performance. They also support Nigeria's position under the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) principle in international climate negotiations.