THE BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS OF THE COBWEB PHENOMENON AND MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING IN INDIAN AGRICULTURE: A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE PRESENT ZHAVAME CABBAGE COLLAPSE

This study explains why farm prices swing sharply in Zhavame, Nagaland. It combines cobweb instability, herd behaviour, and uncertainty about reaching markets. When farmers expect last season’s price to repeat, prices begin to cycle. Local demand barely responds to price, so these cycles grow stronger. Farmers who copy each other’s crop choices make the swings even larger. Blocked trade routes, whether from politics, ethnic tension, or logistics, deepen the instability. Internal production cycles and outside access shocks therefore reinforce one another. Farmer Producer Organisations can share price forecasts to sharpen farmers’ expectations. Shifting toward high-value, low-volume crops, including Geographical Indication-tagged produce, would also help. Selling through several channels would reduce dependence on a single market corridor. Success still depends on institutional capacity, farmer adoption, and alternative buyer networks. Adequate cold-chain facilities and collection centres are equally necessary for these measures. The framework is theoretically grounded and can be tested with field data. It supports stronger agricultural resilience and demand-responsive planning in line with Viksit Bharat.