Absolute Daily External Loads Across Complete Microcycles According to Subsequent Match Outcome in Hungarian Professional Football

Background: This study examined whether absolute daily external loads measured using the Catapult Vector S7 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) differed according to subsequent match outcome across complete competitive microcycles in Hungarian professional second-division soccer. Methods: External load data were collected from 65 professional outfield players across four consecutive seasons (2022–2026), comprising 6672 player-session observations from 93 complete microcycles. External load variables included total distance, high-speed running distance (>19.8 km·h−1), sprint distance (>25.2 km·h−1), high metabolic load distance (>25.5 W·kg−1), player loadTM, high inertial movement analysis efforts (>3.5 m·s−1), acceleration distance (>3 m·s−2), and deceleration distance (<−3 m·s−2). Separate linear mixed-effects models included training day (MD-4 to MD-1), subsequent match outcome (win, draw, or loss), season, and the training day × subsequent match outcome interaction as fixed effects, with player identity and microcycle identity included as random intercepts. Results: Significant training day × match outcome interactions were observed for all EL variables (all p < 0.001). Differences between match outcomes were most consistently observed on MD-3 and MD-2, with lower loads on MD-3 and higher loads on MD-2 preceding wins compared with draws and/or losses. Conclusions: Absolute daily external loads differed according to subsequent match outcome, with the most consistent differences occurring on MD-3 and MD-2. The reported effect sizes ranged from trivial to large, with the largest differences concentrated on MD-3 and MD-2; however, the observational design precludes causal conclusions. Given the exploratory nature of this single-team study, future research should examine these findings in larger, multi-team samples across different competitive levels and seasons.