Macroeconomic Determinants of Public Infrastructure Expenditure in Nigeria: A VECM-Based Framework for Economic Policy Decision -Making

Whether or not public expenditure in infrastructure has stimulated economic growth has gain much currency in economic literature. This study seeks to critically analyze the Macroeconomic determinants of public infrastructure expenditure in Nigeria: A VECM -Based Framework for Economic Policy Decision - Making with available time series data for the period 1970 to 2025. The specific objective of the study is to provide policy relevant evidence and the overriding aim is to: examine the trend of public infrastructure expenditure in Nigeria from 1970 to 2025; compare the trend of public infrastructure expenditure in Nigeria under military and democratic governance from 1970 to 2025; determine the relationship between public infrastructure expenditure and long-run economic growth; ascertain the factors that influence the growth of public infrastructure expenditure over time and test for the stability of public infrastructure expenditure growth over time and derive the policy recommendations based on the findings of the study. The model specification is based on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression while the estimation procedures are that of the Johansen Maximum Likelihood (JML) and OLS estimators.