From Civilizational Game‑Playing Back to Educational Reform: A Reverse‑Causality Hypothesis Based on Complex‑Systems Perspective

Author: Feng Dejian Independent Researcher ORCID: 0009‑0000‑5793‑9666 Web of Science ResearcherID: PQA‑8034‑2026 Disclaimer: This manuscript presents a qualitative complex‑system hypothesis, not statistically verified empirical conclusions. It offers a logically consistent interpretive framework open to future empirical falsification. The physical "compression‑relaxation" construct serves purely as a structural analogy tool; social systems do not obey physical laws. This study explores one major causal transmission pathway without rejecting alternative theoretical paradigms explaining global geopolitics and inequality. Abstract Against globally‑observed collective macro‑trends including rising geopolitical conflicts, accelerating wealth polarization, and social turbulence in resource‑dependent economies, this paper constructs a qualitative complex‑system hypothesis adopting reverse‑phenomenon traceability and forward closed‑loop verification. Starting from observable real‑world collective phenomena, it conducts layer‑by‑layer "why‑questioning" to identify key system‑constraint nodes, then performs forward deduction to reproduce macro‑phenomena and complete logical closed‑loop examination. This research strictly distinguishes sufficient conditions, necessary conditions, amplifying constraints and disturbance variables while delineating model validity boundaries. The core hypothesis holds that when an economy completes economic catch‑up and enters the science‑and‑technology frontier‑running phase, failure of adaptive transformation within talent‑training systems creates supply constraints for paradigm‑breaking original researchers. Such constraints suppress output of paradigm‑level fundamental‑science innovations, diminish global technological growth dividends, and elevate systemic motives for stock‑reallocation games. Through transmission links including resource competition, cross‑border brain drain, capital re‑allocation and dual positive‑negative divergence loops, systemic risks of geopolitical conflict and social unrest get amplified. This model clarifies that the education‑talent chain cannot independently generate wars; it functions as an amplifying constraint node within the global complex system. Territorial, ethnic, religious, ideological and domestic‑political crises may independently trigger local conflicts in parallel with the proposed pathway. Two resource‑game scenarios are deduced to reveal the structural contradiction of "co‑existing strength and fragility" within high‑coupling complex systems. The paper demonstrates the independent anchoring value of agriculture and fundamental manufacturing for national material‑security, constructs negative self‑reinforcement and positive adjustment feedback loops, and proposes a dual‑module curriculum architecture combining knowledge‑imparting and self‑directed inquiry alongside corresponding institutional constraints. Difficulties of pattern‑switching for late‑comer economies in catch‑up are analyzed. Full examinations covering reverse‑link validation, forward self‑consistency check, circular‑argument screening and analogy‑boundary testing are implemented. All open gaps and falsifiable indicator sets for the model are sorted out. This work delivers a heuristic analytical framework concerning educational strategies during transition periods for late‑comer economies, industrial‑chain security assessment and global systemic‑risk evaluation. Keywords: complex system; reverse traceability; catch‑up‑to‑frontier transition; original talent; paradigm‑level technological dividend; stock game; system resilience; material‑security base