Regimes and Critical Thresholds of Insurance Companies’ Financial Stability

This study is devoted to identifying the nonlinear regularities governing the stability of insurers in Uzbekistan. The dynamics of the Financial Stability Index (FSI) were analysed using B. Hansen’s threshold panel regression, based on quarterly data for 34 companies for 2022–2026. The threshold by company size (annual premiums of approximately UZS 110 billion at 2025 prices, or approximately 2% of market share) is highly significant. It is preserved across nominal, real and relative size measures, in non-overlapping annual data, and in a version of the index without the size component. The threshold for the reinsurance share (8.6%) is also significant, but its stability is low. A “stability trap” based on the index’s own level was not confirmed. The regimes differ not through inertia, but through the conditional equilibrium level under average conditions (61 points for small companies and 81 points for large companies). When company effects are included, this difference weakens, meaning that it mainly reflects differences between companies. On the stability map constructed in the size and reinsurance plane, only one of the four regimes has its conditional equilibrium in the low zone. At the same time, the interaction of these two factors was not statistically confirmed. The stochastic cusp model has an advantage according to the information criterion, but no bistability dynamics were identified during the observed period.